The power of saving more, or less

Daily update

UK second quarter GDP was revised stronger, as new methods reveal how much new economic activity has been missed from the data. Rising real disposable incomes encouraged a rise in the UK household savings rate. If the Gulf war does not, in fact, turn into a forever war and oil prices come down, the impact on real disposable incomes should be positive; but that would probably then be used to rebuild savings rates rather than accelerate spending.
Eurozone inflation details for September continue to trickle out. Spanish data was a little higher than expected yesterday, and France, Germany, and Italy publish today. Energy costs will add to the headline measures (and will also add to the core figures).
The US revises its second quarter GDP data, but there is likely to be more focus on the personal income and spending data, and the inflation measures. Spending is still being supported by the use of savings. Today marks the revised methodology for the personal consumer expenditure deflator, and the change is expected to lower reported inflation. It will not change the inflation experience of consumers, nor perceptions of the affordability crisis.
More central bank speakers clutter the agenda. The US’s Wiliams sounded willing to be patient in remarks yesterday.