Socking it to inflation?

Daily update

US President Trump unilaterally extended the Gulf war ceasefire, hoping to persuade the Iranian government to talk. The US blockade remains in place, but as it appears Iranian oil is getting through, the economic effect of this is blunted. Investor attention is on Iran’s comments and decisions.
Federal Reserve Chair nominee Warsh had a confirmation hearing before a Senate committee, pledging not be Trump’s “sock puppet”. Markets will need convincing that Warsh is not a “sock puppet”; that will come through actions rather than words. Warsh did suggest changing the inflation measures the Fed monitors (favoring measures currently closer to 2%). Using lower numbers is not necessarily going to help resolve the US affordability crisis.
UK March consumer and producer price inflation data is due. The UK data will obviously reflect higher petrol prices, but the war’s impact on electricity prices is delayed (and the government is seeking to break the link between gas and electricity pricing).
We are swimming in a mass of European Central Bank (ECB) speakers today. It is too soon for the war to have produced second-round inflation effects, and acting on rates without that evidence would be a policy error. Investors will want to see how many ECB policy makers favor policy error.