Oil maneuvers

Daily update

The Saudi-backed Yemeni government has reportedly made gains from the Houthi. In the wake of several Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, this has a potential bearing on the price of crude oil. What matters to consumers is the refined product (putting crude oil into your car is not recommended). US President Trump expanded the use of tax-exempt diesel. The deferral tax is USD 0.244 per US gallon. Diesel does not directly contribute to US consumer price calculations, but appears indirectly via transport costs. Whether cost cuts are passed to consumers is a different question.
The European election calendar was accelerated by an early Spanish general election (in November). Corruption, housing costs, migration, and the problems of passing legislation are all in focus—these issues are not unknown elsewhere. The French central bank governor offered helpful advice to the French government on fiscal policy which is likely to change nothing.
German factory orders, and Spanish and French industrial production numbers are due. The reality of European manufacturing has been reasonably good all year.
US import and export figures are due—primarily a political focus, but they should emphasize just how much of the US enthusiasm for AI is dependent on imported components. New York Federal Reserve President Williams is speaking today.