Oil bubbles up again

Daily update

The crude oil price is creeping toward USD 90 per barrel. US President Trump responded to Iran’s demands for reparations by demanding Iran pay reparations—this is not the sort of concession the US will be required to make to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It is too soon for the recent rise in crude oil to show up in US retail gasoline prices, so domestic political pressures have probably not yet peaked.
The UK’s BRC same store sales data slowed. Food sales were strong but hot weather has deterred consumers from spending on non-food items (there is also basically no inflation there, and the data is nominal). Weather aside, the UK consumer seems in reasonable health.
The US has a mix of minor information. The NFIB small business sentiment survey has historically been troubled by accusations of a political skew. That does perhaps raise concerns about the recent downwards trend, even with a Republican-dominated government. There are a number of primary elections.
The yen is drifting back toward 160 per US dollar, slowly unwinding the effects of the intervention. Policy has not changed, and there is little evidence yen weakness was the result of a speculative attack, so this drift back to market-perceived fair value is hardly surprising.