More misunderstandings

Daily update

US attacks on Iran follow from Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping. It is not a great look for the memorandum of misunderstanding. Oil futures prices rose—to levels not seen for two weeks. A stronger reaction has been avoided, perhaps because of how investors view US President Trump’s political position. US retail gasoline prices remain well above pre-war levels, and it is the pre-war level that consumers think of as a “fair” price.
Away from political posturing (hopefully), the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its last meeting. Given Fed Chair Warsh’s refusal to offer guidance, the minutes may attract extra attention—but as the Fed chair also tends to have a lot of influence over the content of the minutes, the results may be very bland.
French far right leader Le Pen has been cleared to stand in next year’s presidential election. That might have a bearing on policy (as politicians seek to attract Le Pen supporters). It may also affect the ECB, as there are reports Lagarde will resign early to allow Macron to influence the choice of the next ECB president.
There are more ECB speakers scheduled. Recent comments have tended to stress that the ECB does not intend an automatic series of rate increases.