Keeping the optimistic bias

Daily update

US President Trump suggested talks with Iran could begin within two days. Investors have received enough independent confirmation to give the idea credibility. The “always look on the bright side” mentality has continues. The war does mean that global economy is worse off than it would have been—though probably not as bad as mathematical models (including those of the IMF) suggest.
US March import and export prices will both show oil price effects. The higher value of exported energy will flatter the balance of payments, but the overwhelming majority of US consumers have experienced damage to their living standards.
The IMF’s spring meetings give an opportunity for central bankers to rush to the very center of the media spotlight and pontificate. Bank of England Governor Bailey is amongst those rushing. Bailey has already had to dial back the hawkishness of the last bank policy meeting and calm expectations of rate increases.
The Federal Reserve’s beige book gives anecdotes from people actually doing things in the real economy. The problem is that increasingly visceral US political partisanship is fighting its way into every aspect of the economy. The anecdotes seem to be increasingly skewed by political perceptions rather than the purity of economic observation.