How to survive an affordability crisis

Daily update

Iran and Oman are close to agreeing on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. While this may not signal an immediate reopening of the strait, it does suggest Iran is considering reopening the strait. Crude oil prices have fallen (although gasoline prices in the US remain comfortably over USD 4 per US gallon).
Revised US GDP data is due, and is not expected to change much from initial estimates. From a consumption point of view, the data is not very reflective of the change in living standards experienced by most US households.
July US income and consumption data is the main focus. Headline inflation will be supported by oil prices. The expectation is for a decline in inflation in the second half of this year, but a new wave of tariffs may challenge that narrative somewhat. Consumers in the US, as elsewhere, have been adjusting savings to support consumption as real incomes have been impacted by higher oil prices. This should continue for the remainder of this year, but relying on savings does have a time limit.
There are a couple of central bank speakers today, but markets are likely indifferent. The focus is comments coming out of the Jackson Hole summer camp at the end of the week.