Growth and delays

Daily update

Japan’s preliminary second-quarter GDP data was weaker than expected—though the headline changes were exaggerated by the fiction of annualization. Consumer spending weighed on the growth rate. While international investors have been eager to see the Bank of Japan as being too late with rate increases, the data seems to support a more gradual approach.
China’s July retail sales data is due. This is expected to be mediocre, as the domestic economy has not been a big support for activity. What has attracted attention is the fact that the release has been delayed—possibly purely to accommodate party ceremonial events, but the global climate invites speculation and scrutiny of any sudden shift in government schedules.
US President Trump has downgraded military operations with South Korea, with rather direct hints that this is due to their stance on Iran. Polling shows the US is viewed as a less dependable military partner—European defense procurement has shifted, and the UK’s Project Brakestop missile program specified that US components were not to be used. This might have relevance to trends in longer term defense spending, especially as Gulf countries recycle petrodollars into rebuilding military capabilities.
There is a business sentiment poll from the US, and little else of note on the data calendar.