Daily update

  • US President Trump signed a bill ending the government shutdown. The failure of the US government to function properly is so commonplace that markets barely registered it. Democrats have signaled a united opposition to confirming former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh as the next Fed chair, until the administration’s legal pursuit of the Fed is ended. This was expected, but raises the prospect of Chair Powell staying on as FOMC chair (not Board of Governors chair) beyond May.
  • France passed its budget by failing to vote out the government in a vote of confidence. Markets expected this. It leaves France’s fiscal issues unresolved, but these are of course on a different scale to those of the US.
  • Eurozone flash estimates of January consumer price inflation are expected to show disinflation, with the headline rate slowing to 1.7% y/y. This reinforces the strength of real income growth in Europe, giving a solid foundation to growth.
  • Technology stocks became concerned about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence. One of the challenges with a  new technology is that its effects are always uncertain, and small changes in assumptions can have disproportionate impacts. Tensions in the Gulf remain, after the US shot down a drone, but markets have been generally disinterested to date.

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