Defiant consumers?

Daily update

Friday's market moves are attention grabbing, but economically more muted. The crypto gyrations are speculation, with little real world relevance (beyond the alleged boost to North Korea's GDP). The technology moves reflected concerns in one sector rather than signaling a general economic crisis. US consumer behavior has followed a broadly similar pattern to that of other consumers less obviously exposed to technology equities.
Consumer behavior elsewhere is displayed with September German retail sales figures. There is a strong pessimism bias to the initial releases, with revisions showing the German consumer indulging in frequent shopping sprees. The unreliability of the initial releases may account for only modest market interest.
There is an unwelcome clutter of business sentiment polls. Investors' focus on pricing power might give some additional resonance to the price sub-components of the US ISM poll, but even these signals should be treated with caution. Factory gate prices are a long way removed from consumer pricing.
The US midterm elections hang over markets to some extent. Investors assume a Washington gridlock, but that is not too much change from today. The focus is whether US President Trump becomes more aggressive in the Gulf war, once freed from the pursuit of popularity.