Could go up, could go down

Daily update

Fresh US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices higher, to levels experienced when the memorandum of misunderstanding was signed (10% above pre-war levels). Markets question the strength of the US position, allowing the optimism bias to cling on. Global behavior adapted during the war, mitigating the economic damage of renewed hostilities.
The Federal Reserve June meeting minutes showed surveyed financial market participants expect rate cuts in 2027. Policymakers thought rates could go up, or down. With economic data less reliable, both sides can find support for their contentions. The balance of evidence would seem to favor the next Fed move being a rate cut.
China’s June consumer price inflation came in slightly lower than expected. Food prices (except eggs), rents, and car prices are falling. It is worth noting that European imported car prices are still rising, so the “China exports deflation” story seems rather weak.
The UK far right Reform Party leader, Farage, was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead. This is a Crown post, necessitating a by-election. Farage, released from the onerous duties of Steward and Bailiff, will then stand. The leading alternative candidate is someone dressed as a wastebin. Political risk and nuance is peculiar to local markets; local investors understand politics best.