Camels through the eyes of fishhooks

Daily update

China and the US agreed to lower tariffs on USD 30bn of each other’s products. China’s consumers will pay lower taxes when buying camels from the US. US anglers face lower taxes when buying fishhooks from China. The amounts involved are small—USD 30bn represents around two months of the tariff avoidance implied by a comparison of US and China trade data.
Crude oil prices rose after US President Trump failed to agree Iranian terms for opening the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi launched attacks against Saudi Arabia. If investors believe central banks seek to curb non-oil growth to offset oil inflation, interest expectations will closely correlate with refined oil prices. US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent reaffirmed a belief in the productivity pixie, and urged the US central bank to keep an “open mind” on interest rates. This is unlikely to bolster the Treasury’s market credibility.
ECB President Lagarde speaks again. With interest rates at the top of the neutral range, will reverence for the 2% inflation target push the ECB toward restrictive, recession-creating policies to bring down the non-oil prices they have some hope of influencing?
There is little to distract on the data calendar—the Dallas Fed’s comments section should provide the normal comic relief for economists.