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Daily update

The Brent benchmark oil future is back above USD 90 per barrel. The US-Iran truce covered by the “memorandum of understanding” expired yesterday and US President Trump said there is no intention to extend it. Trump also threatened to bomb Oman (again). From an investor perspective, none of this changes the current situation—Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed—but markets’ optimism bias is undermined by the near-term outlook.
Yesterday’s delayed release of China’s economic data showed a rather mediocre economy—retail sales were weaker than even the lackluster consensus forecast. China’s Premier Li has urged officials to offer economic support. One issue is whether the slowdown represents a cyclical drop, or a more accurate reporting of a longer period of slower growth. The latter would be more difficult to resolve.
UK labor market data is due, but quality questions remain around this. Labor market problems have a habit of being revised away (the latest such instance was long-term sickness, which apparently is not a problem in the UK after all).
US import and export price data has lost some of its interest for markets—the assumption is that exports will not offer any offsetting discounts for the new tariffs (the same reaction as with the unlawful tariffs).