Assertions and indifference

Daily update

US President Trump asserted that talks with Iran are ongoing. Iran asserted that talks with the US are not happening. Markets tend to react if Trump has the authority to back statements—threatening military strikes is partially priced in, raising oil prices; retreating from military strikes lowers the oil price. But markets are less inclined to respond to Trump’s other statements without independent confirmation—hence today’s lack of reaction.
South Korea joined the list of countries with inflation surprising to the downside. Core inflation is still increasing, but there is a trend for inflation pessimists to skew consensus forecasts higher at the moment.
US June trade data is possibly distorted by the uncertainty over tariffs (a lot of Trump’s social media posts on tariffs have not translated into action). Oil exports may attract attention.
Final US June durable goods data hints at US investment spending. Factory building and office building have both been weakening. The former may reflect policy uncertainty, the latter efficiency gains from flexible working. The shiny new toy of artificial intelligence is sustaining investment. Roughly two thirds of companies asked to provide labor market data for the JOLTS job opening numbers do not bother. The technical term for the result is “dodgy data”.