Crude oil prices continue to move higher amid ongoing fighting in the Gulf. US gasoline prices have not moved much higher, because they did not move much lower when crude oil prices fell. US President Trump’s seeming willingness to overlook record low approval ratings and the threat of losing the midterm elections is challenging markets’ optimism bias.
Rising bond yields keep headline writers in gainful employment. Bond yields are around pre-global financial crisis levels. One could argue that it is the post-crisis era that is the unusual episode for borrowing costs. The question is how many bond traders today were trading the markets before the crisis (they would be over 40 years old). The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of US economic anecdotes is due, at a time of heightened focus on US monetary policy.
US July factory orders data is due. New factory construction continues to weaken—the Biden-era factory construction boom has slowed rapidly. This does not meaningfully affect factory output (existing factories are far more important than new ones) but raises questions about the sector’s confidence.
Yesterday’s Eurozone consumer price data was below the European Central Bank’s projections, but above their target. Critically, second-round inflation effects (which a central bank might hope to influence) still seem absent.