After the data

Daily update

The July US consumer price inflation data was as expected. This allowed headline writers to wax lyrical about “easing pressures on the US Federal Reserve”. Economists are not rushing to change views—the economic consensus is very clearly for unchanged US rates this year. Non-oil price pressures still seem benign, but this print was flattered by fewer gasoline price increases that will be evident in the August data.
The important lesson from this week’s US primary election results is that prediction betting websites can be spectacularly wrong in their expectations. This is important with US midterms and several European elections looming. The UK has an election today, with far-right Reform Party leader Farage trying to defeat a host of comedy candidates.
UK second-quarter GDP was stronger than expected, led by consumption and investment. The second-quarter growth matches that of the European Union aggregate, and is the second highest of those G7 countries that have reported.
Spanish final July consumer price inflation will not change from the initial data, leaving markets completely indifferent. Europe seemingly publishes final consumer price data solely to boost economists’ forecast accuracy. US producer price data has lost some urgency following the bland consumer price numbers, but will be monitored for second-round effects.