A dangerous game?

Daily update

Chip manufacturers have been experiencing equity price volatility after Broadcom’s chief executive drew “casino” parallels. (US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent has already demonstrated the danger of making that analogy). The global economic impact of this noise is not that significant—although it may matter for the South Korean and Taiwanese economies.
Central bank speakers include four members of the Federal Reserve, with Fed Governor Waller probably of most investor interest. The Fed is trying to keep rates at the top of the neutral range, using only very imprecise data, without tipping into a recession-inducing restrictive policy, but while giving the impression it can control oil-induced inflation (which it cannot, in fact, control). US retail diesel prices have not responded to US President Trump’s social media posts over the weekend.
Germany and the Netherlands give final consumer price data for September. These numbers are almost never revised (even by Germany), but they do include more details. Inflation should remain primarily about passing through energy costs, without evidence of second-round effects.
The UK British Retail Consortium’s shop sales data showed an active consumer in September. The IMF revised up its UK economic growth estimates, but this is old news—IMF forecasts tend to reflect what markets priced in some months before.