Who to scapegoat when trade deals are done?

Daily update

The proposed US-Japan trade deal means US buyers of Japanese goods (including autos) face a 15% tax. Steel is still taxed at 50%. Of course, deals are not the same as implementation, as the UK steel industry can testify. There are media reports that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba will resign in August. Investors are unlikely to expect significant policy change given the lack of a majority in either house of the Diet.
The latest trade tax agreements will most likely hit US consumers in January 2026. Trade taxes hit quite high up supply chains, and take time to work through to consumer baskets.
Trade deals do reduce business uncertainty—and uncertainty has constrained US businesses’ investing and hiring. The question is whether deals hold. One point about scapegoat economics and prejudice politics is that there does need to be a scapegoat to blame when things go wrong. If trade deals make it harder to blame foreigners, either deals will be broken to re-establish them as scapegoats, or new scapegoats have to be found.
The US Congress is taking an American version of les grandes vacances, apparently to avoid debating the release of the Epstein files. This delays various pieces of legislation, but the macro impact is likely muted.