Is everyone else playing nicely?

Weekly Updates

This year, global trade patterns have been distorted by unusual US inventory cycles. US wholesalers rushed to stockpile imported goods in anticipation of tariffs. That pattern of stockpiling was not evenly distributed across sectors, creating different import waves for specific products.
However, the current trade tensions offer few signs of a return to the multinational conflict of the 1930s. While the US has put in place trade barriers with the rest of the world, the rest of the world (with some specific exceptions) has avoided putting in place barriers between each other. Europe is trading as usual with the UK, the UK with China, China with Japan, and so on.
US policy still distorts non-US trade. Modern supply chains are long and complex—if US demand for finished goods from China has been distorted, that is likely to distort China’s demand for components imported from South Korea. Any rerouting exports via third parties to avoid tariffs would also appear as higher non-US export values. The dollar value of non-US trade is flattered by currency moves.
Nonetheless, ignoring trade with the US, export values for China, the EU, Japan, and South Korea are all close to the highs of the post-pandemic trade boom. The rest of the world is playing quite nicely together.