Uncertainty hits forecasts

Daily update

The US long weekend was marked by aggressive policies and then a retreat, but that still leaves its mark on financial markets. The US dollar remains near its recent lows against major currencies. Investors are concerned that the retreats may not be comprehensive, and that economic behavior will still have to adjust to accommodate wild policy swings.
The US sentiment data due today is still burdened by political partisanship. The consumer confidence figures are likely to say more about the respondents’ cable news channel of choice than anything in the real world. The comments section of the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey should cover some of the bigger trade tax imposition/retreat events.
US April durable goods orders data is likely to be messy. Consumers have been favoring fun over goods for some time. The factory building boom slowed abruptly at the start of this year. But foreign customers of US durable goods may have rushed to stockpile out of fear of retaliatory tariffs. The range of forecasts for today’s numbers is unusually wide.
French May consumer price inflation is likely to remain subdued, and is not expected to excite markets. The UK’s BRC shop price index remains in deflation, with rising food inflation and ongoing non-food deflation.