Uncertainty about talking

Daily update

China said it was not negotiating with the US over trade. US President Trump avowed that the US was talking with someone (who they are talking to is a secret, apparently). Things like this might possibly be contributing to the economically damaging levels of uncertainty. The US and South Korea have agreed a framework for trade talks (North Korea escaped US tariffs). South Korea and the US had a free trade deal with no tariffs at all until a few weeks ago.
Final US April Michigan consumer sentiment is due. The main value of this is assessing the extent to which partisan media bubbles are being burst by economic reality. Republican sentiment did dip slightly in the early April data—it will interesting to see whether that sentiment weakened further in the latter part of the month. Democrat sentiment is likely to be remain mired in extreme pessimism.
Japan’s March Tokyo consumer price measure showed more inflation than had been expected, although department store sales continued to fall. There is some evidence of spending on consumer durable goods, perhaps in anticipation of tariffs.
UK March retail sales were strong, again with some evidence of durable goods buying. UK retail sales have been strong in recent months, defying retailers’ post-budget pessimism.