Twelve billion dollars

Daily update

Germany’s October trade surplus was larger than expected, principally because of a steeper fall in import demand. Globally, trade away from the US remains robust and (more or less) normal.
US President Trump announced a USD 12bn aid package for US farmers. Trump also raised the possibility of increasing tariffs on importers of Canadian fertilizer. Bond markets are unlikely to be concerned, although tariff revenues have been less than modelling suggested; US importers avoid tariffs through rerouting supply chains, etc. This might represent increased political focus on food prices. US grocery prices rose 1.9%, with some items increasing over 7%, from December 2024’s level.
The UK November BRC retail sales data was weaker than expected. The numbers are nominal and slowing BRC food price inflation will have some impact. Black Friday might distort these figures—it is not really a UK festival, but might pull sales online (online sales are not covered in this survey).
US October job openings (JOLTS) data should be important—the “no hiring, no firing” narrative has been important to stabilizing consumer spending. However, the survey response rate is only around a third; and if two thirds fail to respond, it raises questions about the impartiality of the responses that are received.