Trends not changing

Daily update

The US employment data yesterday raised several red flags. Existing data quality problems were compounded by the government shutdown. Looking at year-to-date trends, the total number of jobs in the US has risen, but at a slower pace than in the past four years. Manufacturing jobs have continued to fall. Average hourly earnings are not the same thing as wage or income growth, but the pace has slowed and may be overtaken by inflation in the coming months.
The report does not raise too many concerns about the resilience of the US consumer. Employment in restaurants continues to grow, suggesting the trend to spending on having fun continues. However there are probably enough concerns about the health of the labour market to justify an insurance rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year.
US President Trump announced a complete blockade of Venezuela (except for the land borders). This will impact oil exports, but other exports presumably can leave by truck. The global impact of this is limited—Venezuelan oil exports were much less than 1% of global demand last month.
UK consumer price inflation was lower than expected. The weirdness of UK electricity pricing continues to add to inflation, but some sectors (e.g., furniture, appliances) have deflation.