Daily update
Daily update
- US Treasury Secretary-nominee Bessent is a more orthodox cabinet nominee. Yesterday’s confirmation hearings saw generally articulate answers. The responses on trade taxes were troubling. Bessent’s idea that an appreciating currency offsets tariffs is not supported by recent evidence. The idea that US workers will not pay trade taxes is wrong. As he’s an intelligent individual, these views may reflect the beliefs of the incoming administration, not Bessent’s understanding.
- China’s official government data reported a 2024 GDP growth rate of 5%, exactly in line with China’s official government growth target of 5%. Academic analysis, including that by FT, has suggested growth numbers may be overstated—even a 3% growth rate implies rising living standards, as China has a falling population. What matters globally is not just China’s growth, but how much China interacts with the rest of the world.
- UK December retail sales saw very weak food store sales, and general strength elsewhere. The pattern is not really consistent with consumers cowering at home out of fear of the recent budget.
- There are some more ECB speakers today, but this week will have had 14 speakers and the account of the last meeting and economists are somewhat fatigued by it all.