Trade tax timing, and inflation

Daily update

The US June employment report was strong enough in the headline to dispel ideas of a sudden US interest rate cut. It was troubling enough in the detail to suggest a more negative outlook for the US economy. Job creation was very narrowly focused.
US May trade data showed an effective tariff rate of 8.7%. This is about 60% of what the eventual effective tariff rate will be. A relatively large amount of goods imported (especially by ship) did not have to pay the April tariffs in May; June imports will have to pay. The staggered impact means April tariffs will inflate US consumer prices from July but the full damage is not likely before September.
US President Trump suggested the next wave of trade taxes will be 10% to 70%. They said the tax revenue would come into the US on 1 August. The tax payments actually transfer from US company and consumer bank accounts to the US Treasury. Investors assume that if 70% taxes are announced, Trump will retreat.
France, Spain, and Germany all provide data on their manufacturing sectors. Amidst all the noise, it is worth remembering that the rest of the world is trading with one another in a more or less civilized way, mitigating the economic damage.