The Italian States of America

Daily update

The IMF suggested that the US government debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed that of Italy by the end of the decade. There is no reason to suppose this IMF forecast is more accurate than any other IMF forecast, but the trend is clear. Italian parallels are a reason not to panic. Italy is a very wealth country, and has successfully mobilized private wealth to help fund its debt. The US is a reasonably wealth country and could do likewise. The UK’s Truss debacle reminds us that funding government debt (not the debt level itself) is what matters.
There are widespread reports that the online retailer Amazon will fire 30,000 employees. In the absence of official US labor data, such reports assume increased importance. Keeping fear of unemployment in check is critical to keeping US consumers spending. One set of job losses may not change that, but if this were to broaden out, it would be concerning.
The UK October BRC shop price index showed a monthly decline in prices. Non-food items remain in deflation, and the more labor intensive non-fresh food saw moderating price pressures.
Germany and Italy offer consumer confidence data, which is not a market focus. Irish GDP is relevant as a distortion for Eurozone data.