The exciting tale of the Federal Reserve

Daily update

The Federal Reserve minutes offered some excitement, and it is not often that an economist gets to write those words. “Many” members of the Fed were opposed to the idea of a December rate cut. The Fed will not have a great deal of new information before it meets next month (thanks to the government shutdown), leading markets to reduce expectations for another rate cut this year.
We get the September (sic) US employment report today. This data was properly surveyed before the government shut down, although the September seasonal adjustment process has been a bit wild in recent years. There is a fairly wide range of estimates, but almost all economists are expecting a positive payrolls number. Earnings growth should be stable, although since April consumers have had to rely on cutting back on their savings to meet higher prices.
German October producer prices remained in deflation territory, largely because of energy price deflation. Non-durable goods did experience a noticeable slowing of inflation pressures, however.
Some sentiment surveys will be generating a background drone of irrelevance in financial markets today. The noise of central bankers speaking is a bit more relevant, especially with speculation about the path of Fed policy.