The data in focus

Daily update

The US June trade balance is due—a number once overlooked but which politics has made it matter. Are international investors rushing to buy more US-made products? They are not (Canadians seem to be rushing in the other direction). Are US consumers less inclined to buy foreign goods? Probably not—even as late as June, some imports will not yet be hit with trade taxes. The euro has weakened, allegedly in response to concerns about the economic implications of the trade “deal”; but we still lack “deal” details, and the reaction of US companies will also matter to the EU economic outlook.
The US JOLTS layoffs and vacancies data is due—a low quality statistic even by US standards. Chronically low response rates to the survey, and the impact of artificial intelligence on reported vacancies complicate any interpretation. Generally, the US labor market looks fragile, but this is more weakness of hiring rather than firing—which limits consumer damage.
European inflation expectations are due. Do markets care? They do not. There is, however, an opportunity to contrast with the polarized and more inflation-prone US expectations.
UK consumer credit and mortgage data might get a little attention. UK consumers have improving real incomes, but mortgage data hits at housing market confidence.