The bigger picture on trade

Daily update

The US June trade balance is due—measuring both goods and services. For some bilateral relationships (e.g. trade with the EU), the US goods deficit is almost entirely offset by a services surplus. Goods export patterns have been distorted by the anticipation of trade taxes, and to some extent by boycotts of US goods. It is unlikely that there will be any evidence of tariffs transforming the US into an export powerhouse.
The OECD has been fretting about lower corporate investment threatening global economic growth. This view can be challenged. There is no reason why investment should match pre-pandemic trends if economies are now using existing capital stock more efficiently. More working from home means there’s less investment in buildings, office equipment, etc. Living standards rise with less investment.
US President Trump randomly threatened more trade taxes on imports from India, over India’s Russian oil imports. The varied rationale for trade taxes and the unpredictable way in which they are imposed might strengthen the legal case against them.
Assorted business sentiment polls are due—not politically controlled but still subject to political bias on the part of respondents. EU June producer price inflation is not especially interesting of itself, but might be useful in comparison to US producer pricing over time.