Still not hiring

Daily update

The September US employment report was finally released. This data’s quality has deteriorated dramatically—not because of the shutdown, but because survey response rates have been weak for some time, and the seasonal adjustment process in September has been a distortion in recent years. Payrolls rose, but so did the unemployment rate.
The higher unemployment was driven by an increase in labor force participation—more people are looking for work. Unemployment amongst the middle-aged actually declined. The rise in participation and unemployment was notable in those under 25, which fits the narrative of college graduates struggling to find employment when policy uncertainty is deterring employers from hiring.
UK retail sales were weaker in October, but the weakness was fairly narrow in scope. There is a suggestion that consumers might be delaying purchases of things like clothing until the “black Friday” sales period—an Americanism that has invaded the UK via online retail. Online retail sales fell.
While sentiment data can normally be ignored, the US November Michigan consumer sentiment poll offers the entertainment of a political partisan breakdown. This helps identify how political bias may impact headlines—for instance, in the wake of recent elections and other political developments, Republican pessimism might arise from news flow rather than reality.