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Daily update

The Federal Reserve Beige Book of anecdotal evidence changed little—a stable outlook with some concerns. In the details, manufacturers and retailers expressed concerns about tariff-induced cost increases. Lags in supply chains mean that for retailers it is probably a reference to the April tariffs. The absence of hiring continues in the labor market. The willingness of high income consumers to spend was noted.
The Beige Book allows Fed members to confirm pre-existing biases; some inflation for the hawks, some output concerns for the doves. There is nothing in this to prevent the Fed from cutting rates a couple of times over the next six months.
While the US takes a day off to prepare for tomorrow’s Black Friday festival of excessive consumption, Europe is offering no data of any real interest. Eurozone M3 money supply, and consumer and business confidence are not calculated to excite a passionate market response.
Yesterday’s UK budget was fairly bland. There was “bracket creep”, subtly increasing taxes for typical taxpayers. UK median taxpayers’ benefit-adjusted income tax rates are amongst the lowest in developed economies. Property taxes—the more acceptable wealth tax—increased for some. It is a pattern likely to be repeated in other countries around the world over time.