Sending surveys into a void

Daily update

It is US employment report Tuesday, with a bowdlerized October report (no household survey) and a rushed November report of dubious quality. Response rates to surveys are already horribly low, and whatever motivates someone to complete a survey most people ignore at a time when the government is shut down suggests that this data is likely to be subject to distortions.
The US Court of International Trade has issued a ruling appearing to confirm it has the power to order refunds—with additional interest—for any tariffs declared unlawful, even if the payment has been declared final (“liquidation”). If tariffs are declared unlawful this would act as a fiscal stimulus, with the money of course being paid to importing US companies (who were obliged to pay tariffs) and not final consumers (who “chose” to pay importers a higher price).
US October retail sales data gives some signals on the US consumer—the numbers are nominal and include price increases. Middle-income consumers seem to have been steady in their consumption patterns, lowering savings rates to meet higher prices.
UK November labor market data is due (also fraught with quality problems). Income growth is likely to be a focus as moderation here opens the possibility of Bank of England rate cuts.