Politics and economics overlap

Daily update

China has hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gathering, and the media have become excited about signs of a rapprochement between India’s Prime Minister Modi and China’s President Xi. Markets are likely to be cautious. Such high level events do not often produce meaningful economic outcomes (see also, BRICS).
South Korea’s exports grew at a steady pace in August (5.8% y/y, on a working day adjusted basis, the same as in July). The global infatuation with artificial intelligence continues to lead to strong demand for semiconductors, producing stronger growth for longer than policy makers had anticipated. Disrupted trade with the US is offset with plenty of alternative export destinations.
Europe has a host of manufacturing sentiment opinion polls for August. These tend to correlate to the media cycle, not necessarily to the real world. The danger is that investors turn to private sector polls as fears about official data quality grow—yet, private sector data are potentially at risk of political bias in responses, and often lack details of how the numbers are created.
UK mortgage and credit numbers are due. They have some importance in the longer term—housing affordability is a social, political, and economic concern across many economies. In the short term, the impact is likely limited.