One trillion dollars

Daily update

China’s trade surplus exceeded one trillion US dollars in the 11 months to November. Round numbers do not matter in economics, but trends do. This surplus will help China meet its official growth target, compensating for somewhat lackluster domestic demand.
How has China’s surplus grown with so much chaos in global trade? 1) Everyone outside the US is trading nicely. 2) The US may not matter as much as is sometimes supposed. 3) Some exports to the US may be rerouted to avoid tariffs. 4) There may not be substitutes for China’s exports. 5) Consumers outside the US enjoy good real income growth and job security, and continue to spend.
German October industrial production beat “expectations” (derived from a smallish number of forecasts). This is despite the very mediocre performance of manufacturing sentiment polls, which have been consistently signaling economic contraction since March. The reality has been a general improvement and a move to expansion.
There are several central bank speakers. Members of the Federal Reserve remain crouched behind their veil of silence in anticipation of Wednesday’s policy meeting. This is a shame as it is the Fed that has the drama. There is no drama at the ECB, and everyone is used to drama at the Bank of England.