More policy insights

Daily update

South Korean exports fell in the first part of September (when adjusting for the number of working days). Exports to the US and China (which often ultimately end up in the US) were weaker. Semiconductor sales were a predictable source of strength.
There was considerable confusion over the status of US H1-B visas last weekend. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and the White House Press Secretary gave contradictory signals about the mooted USD 100,000 fee. Near-term confusion is not economically significant. Reducing skilled migrant workers (at a time of near full employment domestically) has longer-term growth implications.
There is a pontification of central bank speakers, including not just one but two chief economists (chief economists should always be heard with reverential attention). The Bank of England’s Pill and the ECB’s Lane are both scheduled, with perhaps more uncertainty about the near-term direction of UK monetary policy.
There are several Federal Reserve speakers, with Governor Miran perhaps attracting most attention. If Miran is the dot plot predicting significant rate cuts this year, they must have a dire view of the US economy—it would be interesting to know why they are so pessimistic. Fed President Williams, as a leading economic voice, is also likely to attract market attention.