Inflation (data) is coming

Daily update

The US government has announced that, regardless of the government shutdown, the September consumer price inflation data will be coming out (probably late). This is legally required, to enable the cost of living calculation that raises social security payments—huge swathes of US government spending are tied to inflation measures. The Federal Reserve should have this data when it meets.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent has thrown the weight of US taxpayers’ money behind the Argentinian peso, intervening in markets and establishing a USD 20bn currency swap. Whether this is a good investment for the US taxpayer depends on whether or not one believes the peso to be overvalued. The peso strengthened in response, to levels not seen since 1 October.
Japan’s producer price inflation was a touch higher than expected. Export price inflation in contracting current terms was almost 0%. That disguises large price drops for auto exports to north America—Japanese autos being perhaps the only area where exporters’ prices have fallen to offset tariffs on US consumers.
Fed governor Barr was sounding quite hawkish in comments yesterday, questioning further rate cuts and expressing concern about inflation persistence. The Michigan consumer sentiment poll with the associated inflation expectations data is due—but as ever will be subject to partisan distortion.