Hints of labor market weakness?

Daily update

Tomorrow’s US holiday means US labor market data appears today. There is a hint today’s report may be weak. US presidents normally see the data the night before release. Last night, US President Trump issued a social media post calling for Federal Reserve Chair Powell to resign. Policy uncertainty and the largest tax increase in modern times are more likely to damage the labor market than Fed policy, but the post might signal weaker data.
After three months, the US agreed to Vietnam’s offer of 0% taxes on US imports. The US intends to tax US consumers 20% for buying Vietnamese goods, with 40% for goods passing through Vietnam (relevant for China, which rerouted about 30% of US-bound exports in Trump’s first term). Trump suggested Vietnam might like to buy US SUVs. In 2023, the average Vietnamese employee earned around USD 3,500 per year.
US May trade data is due. Some US imports will be tariff free. Goods already en route to the US on 4 April were not subject to tax on arrival. Given travel times from Asia and Europe, a proportion of May imports will be tariff-free.
Assorted European sentiment surveys are jumping up and down demanding “look at me”. It is best not to encourage them by giving them any attention.