Growth and guessing

Daily update

The final guess at UK second quarter GDP led to some modest increases in growth—cementing the UK’s position as the fastest growing G7 economy year-to-date. Better investment figures led the upgrade. Consumers’ savings rate increased, suggesting consumers have resources to fund future spending (despite retailers’ attempts at profit-led inflation).
After yesterday’s moderate consumer price data from Spain, other European economies offer their September figures. The inflation environment is expected to stay much as it was in August and the ECB is not expected to change policy, making this all a bit of a non-event. ECB President Lagarde speaks today.
The deadline for a US government shutdown looms tonight. It may be prevented at the last minute—such political theater mainly serves to reduce the productivity of economists who have to waste time commenting on this pseudo-drama. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that no data will be published in a shutdown. That would unfortunately allow rumor and unreliable survey evidence to gain influence over markets.
The US job openings data may thus be the last US labor market report for a while—it is a shame the quality of this measure is so poor. Consumer confidence data is due—no doubt driven by political partisanship.