Daily update

  • French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned, but will work for 48 hours—President Macron wants Lecornu to find a fiscal solution that would command National Assembly support. Despite obvious parallels, this is not the same as the UK’s Truss debacle. The French bond market remains orderly. French assets will command a risk premium, as investors wait to see whether a new government or new elections are the outcome.
  • Argentina intervened to support the peso again yesterday. US Treasury Secretary Bessent highlighted constructive talks with Argentina’s finance minister, but markets generally prefer substance to rhetoric. Bessent has previously hinted that a politically relevant aid package for US soybean farmers may be announced today.
  • US August consumer credit data should be published (it comes from the Federal Reserve), but lacks context. If credit increases, is it because consumer are confident to spend, or because they are shoring up weaker real incomes? US President Trump posted a new 25% tariff on US consumers of trucks, to start from 1 November. This had previously been scheduled for 1 October, but seems to have been forgotten.
  • ECB President Lagarde speaks again. Lagarde, a former French government minister, has been speaking frequently of late, reducing the market impact.

Explore more CIO Daily Updates