Domestic demand drivers

Daily update

There is apparently a shortlist of four for the position of next governor of the Federal Reserve, and prospective nominee to be chair of the board of governors. US Treasury Secretary Bessent is not on the short-list. The question is whether anyone nominated can possibly shake off the perception of being a political puppet.
It appears we are not done with trade taxes. There are threats that the US will impose fresh taxes on imports of goods from countries that buy Russian oil. This keeps policy uncertainty as a risk for anyone trying to do business in the US. The multiple layers of taxes also add confusion (how much will US importers actually owe?), increasing costs.
Eurozone June retail sales data is not likely to move markets—but the general fate of the European consumer is important (and always was important this year). European consumers have the potential to spend, and non-US trade continues to perform relatively well. German factory orders disappointed in June, but these numbers tend to be revised higher (May data was revised up).
Japan’s June wage growth was disappointing, and remains negative in real terms. Wages matter less to Japanese consumer spending power than elsewhere (because of demographics) but they are still dominant.