Dissent and discontent

Daily update

The Federal Reserve once again mimicked the style of the Bank of England. There were multiple dissents. Governor Miran presumably has a bleak outlook, with his attempts at aggressive rate cuts getting rejected again. Two Fed Presidents voted for unchanged rates, presumably reflecting concern about the rising US cost of living. The dissents suggest the next Fed Chair may have difficulty asserting control over policy, especially if they command less respect in the Fed and markets.
The fabled dot plots settled on one rate cut next year, and Fed Chair Powell described the current stance as being within a neutral range. The US economy needs insurance against labor market downside risks. It does not need stimulus—especially with inflation risks as they are.
September US trade data is old news, of course, but the details help discern how easily US importers are avoiding tariffs through rerouting and other mechanisms. South Korean exports for the first ten days of December were strong, consistent with the idea that most of the world is trading nicely.
Oil prices flickered a little higher on news of an oil tanker being seized off the coast of Venezuela. However, the move so far is too small to be economically significant.