Daily update

  • Online retailer Amazon denied reports it would publish the tariff impact on the price of each item sold on its US website. The general lack of tariff transparency risks higher US inflation by enabling retailers to indulge in profit-led inflation—blaming tariffs for price increases that actually raise profit margin. Lack of transparency also risks consumers blaming tariffs for every price increase, reducing confidence and threatening growth.
  • US President Trump celebrated their 100 days in office with the expected partial auto tariff retreat, and an attack on Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Trump asserted they knew more about rates than Powell—investors worry Trump’s corporate bankruptcy experience may skew their view on rates toward excess accommodation. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said a trade deal had been done; the counterpart is still secret, but economists are rooting for the penguins of the Heard and Macdonald Islands.
  • US March personal income and spending data reflect spending from the before times, but are likely to show consumers bringing forward purchases to beat the tariffs (strongly suggested by the record trade deficit in March).
  • German, French, and Italian preliminary April consumer price inflation data is due, but the coming US economic slowdown is likely to lower Eurozone inflation pressures in the future.

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