Delays and retreats

Daily update

The additional taxes US President Trump intended to impose on US consumers from Wednesday will now be delayed until 1 August. That means that, allowing for some stockpiling ahead of Christmas, consumers may not experience the inflation spike from these taxes until January next year—assuming that Trump does not retreat again.
Trump posted another tax threat on social. Imports from countries aligning themselves with BRICS policies will be taxed an additional 10%. It is not clear what this “alignment” is; BRICS is not a coherent economic force, more a photo-opportunity playing at being a grown-up gathering. After a muted initial reaction, investors are not likely to pay too much attention to this matter.
One success this year has been that trade taxes have been largely confined to the US—the rest of the world are trading normally. On Friday, China put an anti-dumping tariff on EU brandy imports, and on Saturday the current French finance minister suggested protective tariffs against imports from China may be needed. Any escalation would be worrying. Measurement is complicated by China rerouting exports to the US (potentially via the EU) to help US consumers avoid taxes.
EU May retail sales numbers are due. The EU consumer matters, but the data probably does not.