Deals and delays

Daily update

The Swiss-US trade deal marks another potential reduction in tariffs paid by US importers, following selective tariff cuts on imported foodstuffs. The Swiss tariffs were not in place long, and US importers may have anticipated this reduction; it is therefore questionable how much of the tariff was passed to US consumers. Other tariff reductions have not necessarily reduced consumer prices—less relevant in the Swiss case, but which matters to inflation perceptions in the case of food tariffs.
US Trade Representative Greer complained about the slow implementation of the EU-US trade agreement. The EU has yet to cut tariffs on imports from the US. China has yet to finalize a rare earths agreement with the US—although US Treasury Secretary Bessent is hopeful of a deal before the US Thanksgiving holiday. This reminds investors that while markets react as if high level trade agreements are certain, reality may be different.
Japan’s third quarter GDP contracted, but less than had been expected. Business spending surprised positively. Weakness in exports (a reaction after pre-tariff stockpiling) and housing dragged down the headline. Fiscal stimulus is expected next year.
The US Empire State manufacturing sentiment poll is likely to be biased by partisan views. Assorted central bank speak will probably be overlooked by investors.