Daily update

  • After this week’s events, the question is whether anyone can advocate for US rate cuts without being seen as a political puppet? Yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller offered some (debatable, but valid) economic points in favor of US rate cuts, but the position is politically tainted. The problem for the Fed and markets is that the US administration’s policy continues to create considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook.
  • Political partisanship will be delayed in the Michigan consumer sentiment data (Republicans live in the best of all possible worlds, Democrats live in the worst of times—according to survey evidence). Inflation expectations are further distorted by frequency bias. Trade taxes are disproportionately weighted to durable goods, but the prices of these are less obvious to consumers as low frequency purchases.
  • Japan’s national June inflation data slowed modestly as expected, but this has no bearing on the weekend’s election (voters’ inflation perceptions are unlikely to be moved by official statistics). The internationally defined core rate is 1.6% y/y.
  • There were reports yesterday that the EU Commission is drawing up another little list of retaliatory measures if the US taxes EU goods. What makes this unusual is that the list focuses on measures against US services—which would be an escalation.

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