Becoming a bit British?

Daily update

The Federal Reserve is almost universally expected to cut rates by a quarter point today. There are a few outlying economists suggesting a half point. Given the uncertainty caused by unreliable data quality and other factors, it is hard to put an economic case for an earlier rate reduction.
An earlier cut would probably not have changed the current economic direction; this cut is more anti-depressant than stimulant. Fed members are likely to rush to make clear that economics informed their decision. The Fed may become more Bank of England-like in a pattern of regular dissents (while probably failing to achieve the BoE’s periodic impersonation of an Oxford college’s atmosphere of abstract academic debate).
Yesterday’s August US retail sales figure was robust. US middle-income consumers ended 2024 in a good place, and that prevented a more significant economic slowdown this year. While strong, the numbers are boosted by inflation. The unseasonal pattern of US inflation right now may also mean seasonal adjustments flatter the data stronger.
UK August inflation was unexciting, coming in line with consensus expectations. Restaurants and hotels were the main contributor (August having had hot weather). Food prices keep rising, which consumers are likely to notice. Final Eurozone August CPI will almost certainly be unchanged.