We get the US job openings data today—a release that is useful in theory and terrible quality in reality (the proportion of surveyed firms that reply is less than a third). The broad narrative remains—uncertainty is limiting hiring but not encouraging firing. Artificial intelligence may also constrain hiring, but probably not as much as popular sensationalism suggests.
The US labor market situation produces middle-income, middle-aged consumers who have job security—supporting spending. Younger workers are in a more difficult position, but Gen Z’s economic clout is less relevant (outside niche products).
There was some media dramatization of rising bond yields yesterday. Most advanced economies have huge reserves of private wealth that can be mobilized to fund bonds. Bank of England policy-makers testify to Parliament today. The UK’s bond market is one of the best performing in Europe, year to date, and nominal growth comfortably exceeds nominal bond yields, which may have to be explained to politicians.
There is survey evidence around. The European purchasing manager polls can be ignored, but the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book matters. This is derived from anecdotes rather than survey forms, and though at risk of bias offers an important insight when data quality is being questioned.