Aprés nous, le déluge?

Daily update

French Prime Minister Bayrou is expected to resign, having lost a parliamentary vote of confidence related to fiscal proposals. Assuming someone can be persuaded to take the job, that means five French prime ministers in under two years. Political turnover, debt, demographics, etc. invite parallels to 1990s Italy—but in drawing such parallels, it is worth remembering that Italy managed its debt position perfectly well over that period.
The US offers benchmark revisions to employment data—with plunging survey response rates, the real time data is less and less rooted in reality. Expectations are for some notable negative revisions. Fewer people employed in the past should not change the Federal Reserve’s outlook (the economic big picture, including inflation, is unchanged). However, if the revisions signal worsening employment in the immediate past, that negative momentum should impact Fed policy.
The US NFIB small business survey is not especially valuable of itself. It is believed to have a Republican bias. In the polarized climate of the US, any negativity from Republican-leaning surveys carries extra weight as a warning.
The UK BRC August shop sales data was stronger than expected. Supermarket price increases for food may have contributed, but it does show that UK consumers still have the willingness and means to spend.