And so it begins?

Daily update

US June consumer price inflation is the first number that might show trade tax effects. Only half the expected trade tax rise has hit the economy so far. Inventory stockpiling means pre-tax items are still available. How readily US firms can pass on price increases matters. Post-pandemic inflation made this easier. Tariffs have dominated the (non-Republican) media narrative, making price increases easier. The details, not the headlines, will indicate the potential scale of the inflation surge.
The EU drew up a little list (200 pages long) of US items for retaliatory trade taxes. This targets goods where non-US substitutes are available—no blanket taxing of penguin colonies’ output. Publishing targeted sectors without identifying the tax rate may be an attempt to get US firms to lobby Trump over trade.
China’s official GDP data grew at 5.2% in the second quarter, making it more likely that the official GDP release will meet this year’s official growth target. Investors are unlikely to be surprised.
The German ZEW business sentiment poll of economists is due—economists are not entirely immune from bias when global trade is threatened. The UK Mansion House dinner has the chancellor and the Bank of England governor speaking. Every few years one of them says something interesting.