Daily update

  • Gold prices hit a new record overnight. The gold rally has its foundations in central bank accumulation. Central banks that hold gold still hold a dollar reserve asset (just one that is independent of US Treasury control). That foundation has been built on with expectations of US rate cuts.
  • US President Trump is to deliver an Oval Office statement today. There are a number of topics the president may choose to address, and a number of directions that may be taken on each of those topics. Uncertainty about policy has economic consequences—relevant as markets consider the next employment report on Friday.
  • South Korea experienced disinflation that was not real disinflation in August—consumer price inflation rates moderated, but because of price discounting by a single firm. Inflation, disinflation, and deflation are supposed to be broad-based price changes (indicating economic imbalances), not quirks of a single sector. August Euro area inflation is expected to be broadly stable.
  • US data is mainly business sector sentiment (and some construction spending). Things like prices paid and employment intentions attract attention in the sentiment figures. However, the actual importance of these figures depends on whether the observer believes the survey responses accurately reflect reality.

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